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Predicting 2008 Trends

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When Sahar writes, I generally listen. This morning, Sahar made some predictions for 2008, and the following predictions worry me a bit:

1. Top prices will drop: As the top of the domain market is driven by a handful of buyers (Frank Schilling, Kevin Ham and Co., Anything.com), I see those coming to the conclusion they either have enough to develop or have better returns elsewhere, therefore stop paying top dollars.

“5. Top portfolio owners to diversify away from domains, investing in other technologies (Search technoligies, others), services ( arbitrage, others).”

Sahar has a great feel for the domain name market, better than most, so when he makes a prediction like this, I would take some time to evaluate your holdings.

I’ve noticed that many of the mid-level to highest-priced domain auction acquisitions end up in the portfolios of the big players. They control quite a bit of the money that is invested in domain names. If one or more of these companies drop out of the bidding at domain auctions, we could see what would appear to be a market correction. Of course, another company could come in and fill the void, but it would take a whole lot of financial power to do that.

Regarding the prediction below, I know that Owen Frager has also been saying something to this affect for a while:

4. Top portfolio owners to collaborate more with marketers outside the domain space (such as Scott Day/Seth Godin The “ever” project), SEO folks.

This is a smart approach to domain development. If you look at some of Scott Day’s domain names (like Chairs.com as an example), you wouldn’t know that each wasn’t a full business. Not only does Scott seem to have one of the nicest portfolios assembled, he also has one of the smartest development strategies.

At this time of year, it’s always good to evaluate your portfolio and make changes if necessary. It’s smart to have a diversified portfolio in case there is any type of domain market correction. When it comes to domain names, content is king (for monetization and protection), so now is the time to consider your development strategy.

Hybrid Development: Increase the Value of Domains

While some domain names have high paying keywords, frequently the traffic isn’t significant enough for this to make a major impact on the name’s value. When the name is parked, you may generate a decent amount of revenue from targeted type-in traffic. However, unless something out of your control happens, there really isn’t much of a way to increase traffic to the name with a parked page.

One way that may boost traffic, increase revenue, and consequently increase the value of your domain name is to build a stripped down website. This is a hybrid development project where you add limited (but relevant) content, which should help you with your search engine placement. As a result, more people will find your website, and they may be more likely to click on the Adsense links, generating additional revenue. The more you continue to update your site, the more likely it is that people will find you and return.

In my opinion, the key to this is developing these hybrid sites in areas that are of interest to you. This will encourage you to post more often than if it was a mundane topic or something you didn’t care about. The more passionate or knowledgeable you are about a topic, the more likely it is that people will find you. The job of Google, Yahoo and other search engines is to present their users with the most relevant website based on their search query. If you are able to provide this, you will be placed higher. Of course there are things that make this more complicated, but that is the general idea.

Protect Your Brand!

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Greetings from my father’s store in New Hampshire. I am in the region doing some research for my Lowell.com website which should launch in a couple of months, and I am spending the day with my parents (Happy Birthday, Mom!!) Of course, my mind is always thinking about domain names, and that was clear when I walked into the book shop next door to buy a birthday gift.

At the register, I noticed that they were directing people to their website, which wasn’t close to the exact name of their shop. Knowing the manager, I asked if they had tried to acquire the generic .com for the store (a generic word + Bookshop). He said they had, but it was too expensive. Ironically, after coming back and researching, I saw the generic name is owned by a friend of mine, and I know my friend develops all his names (hence the reason for the high cost he quoted).

I also asked if he bought the actual name of the book shop, as that would also have been an even better choice. He said he hadn’t, but when I searched, I saw it was registered back in August and is now a PPC landing page. Unfortunately, the owner has privacy protection on his Whois so it won’t even be possible to ask if he would sell it, leaving them with the choice of either maintaining the status quo or filing a UDRP. The name of the store is fairly unique and the only Google references for the term together are for this little shop.

The shop has been in business for over 15 years, so there were plenty of opportunities for them to buy the name, but they didn’t have the foresight to do so. They are lucky the current owner has a book related PPC landing page rather than adult-related material. The moral of the story is to spend $8 to register the name of a potential new business or idea. The cost of acquiring it after someone else buys it can be financially restrictive and time consuming.

Domain Investment Business Lesson #1

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The domain investment business is very small, and because of that, most people within the industry know each other well or at least know of each other. Although most people work independently, there are times when working together can benefit all parties.

If I know someone is looking to acquire a particular type of name, I may personally reach out to that person if another acquaintance is selling a similar name. I don’t do it for a commission, rather, it’s out of courtesy to help two acquaintances make a mutually beneficial deal. Likewise, if I see something shady that may impact an acquaintance, I am quick to point it out, also as a courtesy, because I would hope for the same.

In an industry where thousands of dollars can be transfered for a domain name based on a few emails, honesty and trust is the most important thing. This is the most important lesson to heed in the domain business.

I haven’t been in this business for a long time, but I have seen my fair share of things that leave me shaking my head. Some people will do whatever it takes to advance, risking their own financial status and their reputation. Perhaps making an error in judgment once will be forgiven, but if it’s done more than once, others tend to believe it was more than just a simple error.

The domain investment industry can be fun and lucrative. If you are just starting out, remember that there are no shortcuts, and honesty and integrity are two of the most respected (and expected) qualities.

Opportunity Cost of Lost Opportunities

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While some people may complain that its almost impossible to find a true premium generic domain name at a “good” price these days, I believe there are still great deals to be had.

Like the saying goes, sometimes it’s necessary to overpay today to find a good deal tomorrow. I believe there are three reasons to overpay:

  1. Create goodwill with a domain owner/seller to buy the next name (the really desirable name) from him for a fair price. Most sellers prefer to deal with trustworthy, quick paying clients that they know rather than trying to establish a new relationship with someone else.
  2. Acquire a group of domain names in the same vertical or a set of similar names that add value to each other. If a person owns the singular and plural of a name (Deal.com & Deals.com), the value of both can be enhanced as a set. Likewise, owning several extension (.com/.net/.org/.info) of the same domain name can increase the value, too.
  3. Ensure that the offer meets the seller’s needs in order to secure the name. If the seller isn’t inclined to sell for market value, it may take a considerably larger sum to convince the owner to sell.

Frequently, a person only has one chance to buy a domain name before someone else acquires it for a development project. Once a domain name is developed into a website, the name may be impossible to acquire. To avoid this, sometimes a buyer has to jump on an opportunity as soon as it presents itself, or the name may not be on the market again.

If the ideal domain name is available to acquire, now might be the time to do what it takes to secure it. Otherwise, it may be a source of regret down the road.

Generic Domains: Informational vs. Transactional Websites

In many instances, having a generic domain name as a standalone brand, or forwarding a generic domain name to an existing brand’s website can play a large role in the growth of that online business. This is especially true for informational websites, and may be less important for transactional websites.

When the sole purpose of a website is to give information, and there are a number of sites that provide the same information, the consumer may be more likely to simply navigate to the generic domain name. Why bother to remember a complicated domain name when you can find the exact same information on the generic domain name?

However, when a website is transactional, whereby a visitor makes (or considers) a purchase, a generic domain name is important, but less so than for an informational website. With a transactional site, there is much more to the customer experience than simply finding information. The visitor pays close attention to brands, pricing, fulfillment and customer service. Because of this, consumers are more likely to remember the site that gives the best all around service.

The bottom line, in my opinion, is that if you are developing a business around the domain name and plan to generate revenue by selling products or services, the domain name may be less important than the other attributes in building a positive customer experience. If your website is informational in nature, and you plant to generate revenue  from advertising/ppc links, having the generic domain name may be critical.

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