Keith deBoer published an insightful article yesterday discussing how to make money if the domain market crashes. There are some people who would likely say “when the domain market crashes” rather than “if the domain market crashes.”
The domain market has been relatively strong for the last several years. Off the top of my head, I recall 2009-2011 being difficult, but I think there has been improvement since 2012. The challenging thing about analyzing the business as an investor is that a few major sales in a year can shift perception from an okay year to a great year.
If I were to guess, I would think the US midterm elections this November could potentially make a big impact on the general economy and consequently on the domain business. If the US House and Senate flip from red to blue, things could get messy with lots of political gridlock and potential for some fireworks. Uncertainty in the political spectrum could pose problems for the economy. I hate politics and I am certainly no economist, so I could be totally wrong about what happens (if anything). Even if the markets head south, the domain market could continue to hum along.
There are often ups and downs in the business, but do you think we will see a “crash” in the domain market within the next year?