Win an iPad Mini From Escrow.com

I wanted to share an opportunity I saw pop up on Facebook yesterday. Escrow.com is giving away one 16 GB iPad Mini (valued at $329) in a Facebook contest that is free to enter and takes just a few moments. The contest started yesterday, and it runs until January 13, 2013.

Here are the contest rules that were posted:

This Escrow.com Contest is open to persons who are at least eighteen (18) years old at the time of entry. Each Contestant shall earn one entry into the Contest upon completing the entry form located on/within the Escrow.com Facebook page. Each Contestant may earn one additional entry if they elect to “share” the Contest information with their Facebook “friends.”

Seems easy enough to sign up and have a chance at the iPad Mini. Visit the contest page to read all of the rules and to enter for a chance to win.

Silver.com Acquired for $875,000

I want to share news of a large sale that was just reported to me. Silver.com was acquired on December 27, 2012 for $875,000. The buyer sent me a copy of the Escrow.com closing statement to prove the transaction was completed.

The acquiring company is JM Bullion, which was founded in 2011 and has reportedly seen tremendous growth.  According to Kendall Saville, an investor in the company, Silver.com was acquired to increase momentum and drive even more business.  “We decided we needed a domain name that would help us become the largest online precious metal retailers in the world and believe we have found that with Silver.com,” said Saville.

The company intends to use the same model they developed with JMBullion.com to sell gold and silver online. What better place to sell silver than on Silver.com.

Silver.com was probably one of the final sales consummated in 2012, and it will go down as one of the largest of the year. In fact, it was the third largest publicly reported sale of 2012 according to DNJournal. Congratulations to both parties, as it appears Silver.com will help a growing company.

Domain Industry Experts Share 2013 Predictions (Part 2)

On Friday, I posted predictions for 2013 from many domain industry experts. Since I received so many great replies, I broke it up into a two part series. The second set of domain industry predictions is below.

Thank you again to the experts who offered their insight! These predictions are in random order. As always, I welcome your 2013 predictions.

Rob Grant, CEO, WebMediaProperties.com – “Domains and Darwin

If you love Darwin, you’re in for a real treat!

As 2013 dawns, we are about to enter the next, (and very prolific) stage in the evolution of domain names…

The birth of thousands of new, fledgling TLD’s,  encompassing  the entire internet food chain, and spanning a vast spectrum of businesses and industries.

What follows will be a remarkable event to watch… A very chaotic and turbulent period akin to Darwin’s ‘Survival Of The Fittest’ for domain names.

Of the projected one thousand eight hundred new TLD’s scheduled to go live, only a small fraction will ultimately survive (with a good many dead on arrival).

The vast majority of these new TLD’s will go the way of the unfortunate Dodo, a rare bird best known for its brief existince on earth.

For anyone planning to speculate on these new TLD’s, I would urge great caution. Nature can be a wonderful teacher…”

Elliot Noss, President and CEO, Tucows – “in 2013 there will be one new gTLD that will be a huge success, and it will be a geo. there will also be a number of small fizzles.”

Paul Nicks/Product Development – Aftermarket Director – GoDaddy.com  and  Rich Merdinger/Vice President of Product Development – Domains – GoDaddy.com  – “Existing TLDs see a bump in aftermarket pricing as the original gTLDs are seen as a safe harbor in the impending sea of new gTLD confusion. However, initial confusion by the general public will dissipate quickly as people become accustomed to identifying Web addresses by string[dot]string, as opposed to the common string[dot]com.” Paul and Rich  offered several additional predictions, which you can  read here.

Andrew Rosener, CEO, Media Options – “Just as we saw record setting domain sales in 2012, I believe the market will continue its rebound and we’ll see domain sales setting record prices and in record volume in 2013. Unfortunately, many of these sales continue to, and will continue to, go unnoticed as they are under NDA’s and privacy. However, I can say first hand that the last 6 months of 2012 were the strongest we have seen in terms of End User sales in the last 5 years, despite the weakness and lack of liquidity in the reseller market.

I expect that companies and investors alike will continue in 2013 to increase their understanding of domain values, in large part due to the media attention that will be given to the release of the new gTLD’s which will bring greater attention from the general public on the domain industry as a whole. However, I also believe that the complexities and conflicts brought forth in the release and management of so many new gTLD’s will only prove to reinforce the the value of powerful generic & brandable .com domain names.

Over the last 36 months companies have been stockpiling cash, as have investors in all asset classes. As we see signs of a recovering economy, despite continued hurdles, I believe we will see a new wave of investment entering the domain market like never before. While this may not provide the daily liquidity that so many domain investors are desperate for due to falling or stagnating ppc income, the owners of premium .com domains, particularly short (2 – 5 characters) & highly brandable .com domains, will be rewarded dearly as the availability of such rare assets and brands will become ever more scarce and ever more sought after. That being said, those domain investors or owners who need to sell proactively, in a short time frame, will likely still face an illiquid market in 2013 and be forced to sell into a depressed wholesale market with few ready buyers. End user education, negotiation and deal making takes time and patience; it’s always a different story when a buyer comes to you versus a proactive sales campaign.

I believe we are still in the early stages of internet growth and that domain values are still at only a fraction of their potential. One day, there will be a “spot price” for premium domain names and readily available credit from primary lenders who accept your domain name equity as collateral at reasonable interest rates. There will be protection mechanisms in place that will create a “floor price” for premium domain assets such as insurance products, options trading & new traffic monetization models. When all of this is introduced to the domain industry, I believe that domain values will be 3-5 times that of today’s market. While this may not and likely will not happen in 2013, I do believe that the coming year will be a critical next step towards achieving such objectives.”

Theo Develegas, General Manager, Acroplex, LLC – “The new year will be an extension of 2012, more or less: a weak economy will lead many to fold their cards; but it’s those that “bluff” who will get ahead. When the going gets tough, the tough get going. It will be an opportunity for smart investors to snatch great deals and acquire domains at 200+% below face value. There will be a lot of white noise from satellite TLDs currently in the works by ICANN, but nothing will be touching the original three TLDs, com, net and org. The new year will bring several mergers in the domain industry, as players acquire strategic posts for bigger games in the future. It’s going to be exciting times, particularly now that the Mayans are planning to finally issue the 2013 calendar and beyond!”

Brian Gilbert, Innovation HQ – “Parking revenue’s will increase. Something we haven’t seen in quite some time.

I predict Google will lose 2% to 5% of the search market. This is in large part to Panda and Penguin updates that have been effective at getting rid of spammy sites, but did not replace lost results with sites that truly give people what they’re after.”

Nat Cohen, CEO, Telepathy –  “In 2013 I expect to see growing awareness by businesses that premium domains are extremely valuable as online brands.   2013 will also likely see the increasing globalization of the domain industry as e-commerce grows rapidly throughout the world.”

Paul Goldstone, iGoldrush.com  – “It’s an exciting year ahead with a plethora of new domain extensions hitting the market.  Will end users take the bait or will they stick with what they’re familiar?  There are supporters on both sides of the fence.  Either way I think generally people will continue to be more focused than before, working from a quality not quantity standpoint, evidenced by the increasing domain sales.”

Thies Lindenthal, IDNX – Thies wrote up an extensive prediction for the domain industry in 2013, which can be found here.

Michele Neylon, Founder and CEO, Blacknight  – “2013 could prove to be a very interesting year for the internet industry. I expect to see a lot more pressure coming from governments across the globe to regulate all aspects of the internet industry. In 2011 / 2012 we had SOPA / PIPA in the US and the WCIT / ITU conference. 2013 will see more and more of this as governments try to exert more pressure and control over what has become such an integral part of people’s lives. The domain name industry is going to be impacted and is in fact already being impacted (the new RAA for ICANN registrars will be quite a different beast). Expect to see registries and registrars being forced to take a more proactive stance to deal with online criminal activity. The big problem will be getting the balance right ie. stemming online abuse without negatively impacting the bulk of internet users and domain name registrants. We live in interesting times.”

Anthony Peppler, Retired (Father of 3 Year old twins)  – Tony wrote several predictions that I have included in a separate post.

Charlotte Gilbert Owner, Golden Knight Media – “1. Development will be even more important but will become a costly one. Those who should have developed their leading names 3-5 years ago will find developing a domain name now, will be a much costlier one.For their site to to even be seen as engaging to users and noteworthy, will require an extraordinary amount of attention with a development team who has the fingers in all the pies of online growth. Attention must be given to engaging content, app development and online social interaction. Mini site development and single lead gen pages are not the way to go about increasing you revenue in the long run.

2. New overreaching Government regulations on Equity Crowd funding will persistently start to haunt online (domain development, online businesses) and tech entrepreneurs who crowd gather funds for projects. The SEC apparently dislikes these projects as they cant trace the money from where they originated and a person who does fund (no matter the amount) In can buy the company’s product but not a piece of the company.

3. Online advertising will continue to grow especially into the Mediums of on demand entertainment systems such as Hulu +, Netflix, ROKU and the private channels held within those areas.

4. This is just a hunch but I believe parking revenue will rise but not to pre 2009 levels.”

Tony Peppler 2013 Predictions

Although Tony Peppler has maintained a low profile, most people have at least heard of him and his “bonkers” user name at SnapNames back in 2007/2008. Tony has earned his living on his domain investments, and now retired enjoying raising 3 year old twins. He was nice enough to offer a number of predictions for this business in 2013.

1:  No new lead gen programs that will work no where near PPC does, , people that know how it really works (not JohnChow.com, who only sells systems that might work) DO NOT SHARE how they truly work. (Neither would I, How do I really make $ giving away that info.)

2:  Domain Sales of DOT COM will continue to grow, though the $ amount per sale will drop, as domain investors want to make money vs holding domains. The new TLD’s will help .com sales as people will realize they are losing traffic to .com’s

3:  Places like DomainMarket.com and HugeDomains.com will prosper more and more, they have controlled quality vs tons of domains will stupid pricing attached. If internettraffic.com gets a ton of over priced domains, they will not become a factor. Frank should limit the marketplace to two word domains, .com/.net/.org and single words in all other TLD’s.

4:  Facebook.com will not grow this year, as people are becoming aware of tracking…,   I don’t think people will delete there profile as the message system there is nice for events like Chad and Bianka use it for promoting there Model Company. They do it nicely, plus who doesn’t like to hear about modeling jobs 🙂 Facebook will be for Business vs Personal friends sharing info.

5:  Domainers are not business maintainers (myself included) we are entrepreneurs, who build something then we should sell, though our ego’s usually don’t let us.

6:  (This prediction is meant to be positive, though many will take it as a put down, those people who take it negative are the ones who are not succeeding)

The domainers that brag constantly (must have good domains to back it up) for years and years, will continue to get deals as the old adage of telling people you are a expert long enough and a few people will actually believe you and invest in your ideas. Meaning that “The King of Domains” will score another type Candy.com sale this year. I wish I had to guts to brag like Rick does.

Example from the past….

Minnesota Fats vs Willie Mosconi, Fats told everyone he was the best, though he never won a championship in Pool, Mosconi did, but, Fats made a much better living than Mosconi, so bragging about your self PAYS big time in most businesses. Domaining especially!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudolf_Wanderone aka Minnesota Fats aka

Thies Lindenthal 2013 Predictions

I asked a number of industry experts to share their predictions for the domain investing business in 2013, and Thies Lindenthal was kind enough to offer a thorough prediction for the business. If you don’t know of Thies, he researches domain prices at Sedo.com and at MIT’s Center for Real Estate. He has developed IDNX, the leading price index for Internet domain names.

Market believes that new extensions will add to to domain markets, not cannibalize them

No doubt, the release of almost unlimited new domain space is the defining topic for domain markets in 2013/2014. Google provides fascinating data on search trends, revealing what we are interested in collectively: The interest over time in search terms like “Internet Domain Names” or “Buy Domain Names” is declining year after year. The new generic Top Level Domains (“new gTLD”), however, moved into the spotlight recently. When people collect information on domains, they more and more look for the new space, not so much the well-established extensions.

 

Comparing search trends for selected keywords is a very ad-hoc approach but it clearly shows that new gTLDs catch attention while domains in general face reduced interest.

Do domain investors share this general view? Does the plethora of new TLDs launching next year already cast a shadow on domain prices today? This year’s market data show that the new TLDs play a smaller role than most observers expect.

How did prices for domains change in the last 12 months?

My Internet Domain Name Index IDNX tracks the prices for domains paid a secondary markets. It is based on several hundred thousand sales of domains and uses estimation techniques similar to those championed by leading house price indices like the Case/Shiller house price index.

The IDNX shows that we had it all in 2012: Spring brought rapid growth in values with prices climbing to all-time record highs in March/April, before markets stagnated and lost previous gains in the second half of the year. The total return from January 1st through November 30th is +2.3 percent. In sum, capital gains on domain investments were positive — but far from thrilling.

The primary markets kept their momentum as well. Versign reports a robust growth of 12 percent in total registered domains in the last 12 months, with most growth coming from “emerging” country specific extensions.

What are domain investors’ expectations for 2013?

Basic economics predicts that a boost in supply combined with constant demand will result in lower prices. Why buy a domain from an investor if more “fresh” domains will flood the market?

If that frequently aired concern was true, we would already see the effect of the new extensions today. The theory of efficient markets (weak form) states that publicly available information is directly incorporated in prices. Since it is certain that ICANN will roll out the new extensions in 2013, give or take a few months, prices should have adjusted accordingly.

IDNX, however, does not shows any massive decline.

Why? Are domain markets not efficient? Do domain investors do not update their prices when learning about new developments? My research shows that domainers constantly refresh their domain valuations. The graph below visualizes that domain prices (green line) move in line with prices for IT shares measured by the NASDAQ 100 index (blue line).

Just by looking at this year’s return, it is safe to conclude that the market does not anticipate major losses. Apparently, the new domains are not seen as a mere replacement for existing addresses. The market consensus seems to be that the new gTLDs are rather an addition to the domain space and not so much a threat cannibalizing existing domain holdings. Overall, traders believe that good “virtual locations” will keep their value. A 3 letter .com (or .co?) is believed to shine on in 2013.

What about the not so great domains? Will they suffer from the the competition? IDNX represents only domains that actually traded or are similar to sold domains. Low quality domains, those “mypizzaplaceinboston24.biz” of this world, are not represented since they only rarely show up in any sales data. Unattractive strings might lose any remaining bit of value in 2013. In case they do not produce any parking revenues, the only value stems from the chance that somebody actually developing this virtual property. And with so many new extensions to chose from by the end of 2013, the odds of an end user choosing exactly this domain for their new Online enterprise basically evaporates. But is that really new? Wasn’t that already the case in 2012

Domain Industry Experts Share 2013 Predictions (Part 1)

At the end of the year, I always look back to see what transpired and try to make some internal predictions about what is going to happen in this business in the next year. This helps me plan for the future and helps to shape my business strategy going forward.

I reached out to a number of domain name industry friends and colleagues requesting that they make a prediction for the industry in 2013. I received many great replies, and they are shared below in no particular order. Some of these experts went above and beyond to offer more than one prediction, and I linked to those in a separate post.

Because of the great response, I have broken this up into two articles, the second of which will be posted on Monday.

I want to give a big “thank you” to the people who were willing to take the time to reply and share a prediction.

Tim Chen, CEO, DomainTools  (These are Tim’s opinions and not necessarily shared by DomainTools) – “The U.S. government will attempt to wield increasing influence at the DNS level, in part due to what I expect to be rampant abuse of the new gTLD space.”

Rick Schwartz, Founder, TRAFFIC – “It won’t be boring”

Jeff Gabriel, CEO, Domain Advisors – “Me being Nostradamus of the domain industry I predict that any of the new extensions being released will have little to no affect of the values of .com, .net, .org or any of the other established extensions. This will cause the values of these extensions to remain relatively stagnant where you will see few multi-million dollar reported sales like this year to the public. This does not mean multi-million dollar sales are not happening as my own brokerage, DomainAdvisors closed quite a few unreported ones. Proportionately speaking there must be a lot less than past years because there are so few.

Furthermore, due to the continued downturn in parking, and the maturity of our industry, we will see contraction and consolidation of companies. I feel that some of the companies in our space will be either purchased or closed, and few new companies entering the market to replace them. Our industry is in need of something new, and exciting that creates growth and profitability for all rather than finding it by selling assets and I hope 2013 brings it.”

Phillip McKegney, CEO & Co-Founder, DomainAgents – “2013 will be an interesting year. There is much talk regarding the release of new gTLD’s, often with buzzy descriptions like transformative, monumental or revolutionary. While without a doubt there will be some highly publicized winners, the vast majority of people who “invest” in these domains will see a very poor return or a loss.

Those who haven’t been around for previous cycles of gTLD releases will likely be running with the herd and may have a difficult experience. As with anything it’s always smart to follow the money. Highly vested parties will almost always cheer for their cause. Use your head, don’t drink the Kool Aid.

Aside from the gTLD releases, I generally expect that lower tier names within established extensions to decrease in value and for mid to higher tier names to increase in value. The volume of secondary market names to sell will see a marked increase.

Oh, and of course, DomainAgents is going to kick some ass.”

John Ferber, Co-Founder and Chairman, Domain Holdings – “My prediction is that for the people who work genuine and hard and put forth the right effort the domain industry will continue to provide prosperity to those who nurture and participate in it truly the right way.”

Brett Lewis, Attorney, Lewis & Lin – “This is the year that I finally wrestle John Berryhill in jello. For Charity, of course.”

Bill Sweetman, Vice President of the Domain Portfolio at Tucows – I think 2013 is going to be the year that the general public starts to catch on to the reality that the options to the ‘right of the dot’ are about to expand dramatically. I expect that in the second half of the year we’ll see a defining, “We’re not in Kansas anymore,” moment where (with the support of mainstream media) the ‘new domains’ become a hot topic, especially in marketing, branding, and advertising circles. This will likely be aided and abetted by some traditional and social media marketing awareness campaigns by some of the deeper pocketed new gTLD registries and partner registrars who are hoping to get a jump on the competition. Buckle up kids, this is going to be a fun ride!”

Evan Horowitz, CEO, Hunting Moon – “I predict that unsavory domain marketing methods- such as falsely inquiring to purchase domains solely to solicit domains to broker- will lead to problems for those interfering with domains being brokered via exclusive contracts with brokers that respect best practices.”

Braden Pollock, Founder,  Legal Brand Marketing  – “Twenty-thirteen will be the year of the Google-monster. (As if last year and the year before weren’t). Google will continue to turn the dial on everyone standing between them and the advertiser, e.g. domain parking, EMD’s, leadgen, review sites, travel, auto, finance and every other middleman category.

Google acquires dozens of companies each year. That may increase in 2013.

Why index Yelp reviews? Just buy Zagat Guide. Why deliver TripAdvisor pages? Buy Frommer’s instead. Expedia? Sorry. With the ITA purchase, Google can book flights directly. Groupon? Nope. Google acquired Punchd, DealMap, Zave Networks DailyDeal and Incentive Targeting Inc to create Google Offers. (There are plenty more purchases that we don’t know about since most are not public)

I don’t mean to discuss Google’s push into browsers, cellular, social, file storage, wallet, maps, TV, music, ebooks and, believe it or not, parcel pick up stations or any of the myriad of other channels they’re in. This is about Google creating and owning content. Not just videos on YouTube, but all the content we used to use Google to search for. It’s becoming a walled garden. If Google owns the content (to deliver ads and collect data), why serve up someone else’s sites? And don’t get me started on Google’s gTLD applications. If Google is granted .film, how well will .movie sites be indexed? Can you say “conflict of interest”?

Since I’m in leadgen what scares me the most is their push into my world. BeatThatQuote.com was acquired to create Google Advisor as their leadgen platform. At the moment it’s just credit card offers although they’ve tested mortgage and bank account offers as well. (Lookout BankRate). I expect to Google Advisor to expand into other verticals. The EMD shift hurt but the further push into leadgen will really cause some havoc around here.

The only answer is to look for other avenues. I realize that Google has 85% of the search traffic but there’s more to the internet than just search. Put your thinking caps on, and buckle up. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.”